The first are 'minus' moneylines. This is expressed as for example -120. But what does this mean exactly? Well, it is essentially saying that to win 100 you have to make a bet of 120. In other words, if you place 120 on that outcome, you will receive a profit of 100. The other instance are 'plus' moneylines. This is expressed as for example +180. Follow along as we track the odds to win the 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award. The graphs below were created by taking the average odds from several of our most trusted online sports betting sites. Sports betting lines on FanDuel Sportsbook are presented in what is called the 'American odds' format, with odds for favorites getting 'minus' odds while underdogs get 'plus' odds (i.e.120 for a favorite and +120 for an underdog).
- The Uston Advanced Plus/Minus is a good strategy that does not involve an ace side count and can be found in the book Million Dollar Blackjack. How well you know a counting strategy is much more important than which strategy you know.
- This is where one side has a plus and the other side a minus that is based on $100 increments. For example, one side will be -200 and the other side +170. The minus side, which is the favorite in this example, would need to lay $200 for every $100 the player would like to win. The plus side would.
- Appendices
- Miscellaneous
- External Links
Introduction
Let me say loud and clear that card counting is hard and is not as rewarding as television and the movies make it out to be. If it were an easy way to make money, then everyone would be doing it.
If you do not know the basic strategy, trying to count cards is highly ill-advised. Experienced card counters still play by the basic strategy the great majority of the time.There can be no short cut around learning the basic strategy, those who attempt card counting without a firm foundation in the basic strategy are making a big mistake.
To be a successful counter you have to be able to countdown a deck fast and memorize large tables of numbers as well as make it look like you're just a casual player.Furthermore, with today's rules, a realistic advantage the counter will have is only 0.5% to 1.5%. You will not win money slowly and gradually but your bankroll will go up and down like a roller coaster in the short run. Only in the long run, over hundreds of hours of playing, can you count on winning.
The underlying principle behind card counting is that a deck rich in tens and aces is good for the player, a deck rich in small cards is good for the dealer. When the counter knows the odds are in his favor, he will bet more, and adjust his playing strategy to stand, double, and split in some plays where basic strategy says to stand. All the options the player has at his disposal favor the player even more when the deck is ten and ace rich. Here is a list and a brief reason why.
Standing: The player may stand on stiff totals of 12 to 16, and the dealer may not. In ten-rich shoes, hitting stiff hands becomes more dangerous, favoring the more conservative player strategy.
Insurance: On average, when the dealer has an ace up, the remaining cards in blackjack will be 30.87% tens (based on a six-deck game), making insurance a bad bet. However, if the probability gets above 33.33%, it becomes a good bet. Counters know when the remaining cards are ten-rich, and make powerful insurance bets at those times.
Doubling: Usually, when the player doubles he wants a ten. In ten-rich shoes, the player makes better double downs, getting closer to 21.
Blackjack: Both player and dealer will see more blackjacks, but the player gets paid 3 to 2, and the dealer does not.
Surrender: The alternative to surrendering is much worse in ten-rich shoes. If the alternative is hitting, the player is more likely to bust. If the player would otherwise stand, due to the high count, the dealer is still more likely to get a 10. While the counter will surrender more in high counts, the savings will be greater.
Splits: The player is usually splitting high cards and/or off of a weak dealer card. Either way, a ten-rich shoe helps the player get higher totals, and increases the probability of the dealer busting.
I'm working on an in-depth study of how these effects break down. The contribution to each factor depends on the rules, deck penetration, and bet spread. However, based on average conditions in a six-deck shoe, my initial results break down the benefits of counting as follows.
Why Card Counting Works
Player Option | Portion of Benefit |
---|---|
Stand | 40% |
Insurance | 34% |
Double | 9% |
Blackjack | 7% |
Surrender | 6% |
Split | 4% |
What Is The Plus And Minus In Betting Points
The probability for insurance was taken from Don Schlesinger's 'Illustrious 18' list, as found in Blackjack Attack. The rest of the breakdown is mine.
To gauge the richness of the deck in good cards, the player will keep track of the cards the are already played. Strategies vary, but all assign a point value to each card. For example, the hi-lo count assigns a value of +1 to 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, and -1 to tens and aces. Everything else is 0, or neutral. At the beginning of a deck or shoe, the count is 0. Then the counter constantly adds and subtracts from the count, according to the cards played. This running total is called the 'running count.' A positive count means that a disproportional number of small cards have already been played, which means that the deck is rich in large cards. To determine the 'true count,' divide the running count by the number of decks left to be played, or in some strategies, the number of half decks. This will tell you the relative richness of the deck in good cards.
The true count is used in two ways, to determine how much to bet and how to play your hand. Unless it is obvious, every situation has a line in which you should play one way if the count is above the line and another if below. For example, a 12 against a 6 may dictate that you stand if the true count is -1 or greater and hit if the true count is less than -1. The counter will also bet more when the true count is high, meaning the deck is rich in good cards.
A problem arises when it comes to treating aces. The player should bet more when the deck is rich in aces since they add to the probability of getting a blackjack. However, when it comes to playing your hand, the number of aces left is not nearly as important as the number of tens, so it is desirable, but not necessary, to distinguish between tens and aces. Some card counting strategies keep a side count of aces. In the Hi-Opt I and Revere Plus/Minus aces are counted separately and only considered when making the wager. This is a more accurate and powerful way to play than assigning a negative value to aces and not keeping a side count, as some strategies do. Yet, many people feel that for the beginner it is too confusing to keep two counts. A player is more likely to make mistakes keeping two counts and that costs money. The efficiency of a strategy that does not keep a side count of aces is only modestly less, but you likely will gain more from fewer mistakes made. Different experts fall in various places in the spectrum in terms of what to recommend for the beginner. The Zen Count takes the middle ground and gives aces a value of -1 and tens -2. Personally, I have tried both and would recommend against a count that requires a side count of aces to a person ready to take up card counting. The Uston Advanced Plus/Minus is a good strategy that does not involve an ace side count and can be found in the book Million Dollar Blackjack. How well you know a counting strategy is much more important than which strategy you know.
Legally speaking, the player may play blackjack any way he wants without cheating or using a computer, and the casinos may do anything from making conditions unfavorable to barring, in an effort to stop anyone who they deem has an advantage over the game. Much of the challenge of card counting is avoiding suspicion that you are anything but a normal non-counting player. The most obvious indication that somebody is counting is that they make a substantial increase in bet size after a lot of small cards leave the table. Although the greater the factor by which you can increase your bet the greater your odds of winning, more than doubling your last bet is a fast way to arouse 'heat'from the dealer and pit boss. Usually when casinos employees realize you are counting, they will either shuffle the cards whenever you increase your bet, essentially removing any advantage, or ask you to leave.
This is only scraping the surface of the subject of card counting. I suggest the following pages of mine.
Practice
Practice your card counting skills with our trainer.
Internal Links
- Blackjack main page.
- Hi-Lo Count.
- The Ace-Five Count, possibly the easiest way to count cards.
- Book review section, for suggestions on good blackjack books.
External Resources
- Blackjackinfo - A complete course covering everything from basic strategy to card counting
- BJ21 - By Stanford Wong; A membership based community covering all aspects of card counting.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
- Betting odds are used to assess the likelihood of an event happening.
- Less likely events tend to have higher odds and offer a larger reward, while more likely events have a lower risk attached and therefore a lower reward.
- Your winnings depend on how much you wager on a given set of odds.
- Betting odds are seen in a range of formats – they are most commonly seen as fractions but are also sometimes presented as decimals.
A quick introduction to betting odds
Decimal and fraction odds might seem confusing, especially if you're not familiar with online sports betting and all the betting terms and types. This handy guide is ideal for anyone new to betting, or if you're struggling to read the odds.
It contains a range of useful tips and tricks that will help you better understand just how betting odds work, so you can choose odds and place your bets with more confidence.
Here, we will highlight:
- The key points of betting odds and what you should look out for.
- How to read betting odds and make them work in your favour.
- Tips and tricks to help you understand betting odds more easily.
What are betting odds?
Betting odds are used to present the likelihood of an outcome, as well as help you understand how much you could win from a bet. They are often written out as a fraction (e.g. 2/1) or a decimal (e.g. 3.0).
Betting odds can be applied to anything that has a set outcome and is often seen in sport, football betting, entertainment, and politics. The odds measure the probability of a certain outcome, such as the result of a sports game or reality TV show, or whether a certain party gets the majority vote in an election.
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds are used to determine probability and calculate the winnings from a bet and are often seen in their decimal or fractional form. Odds are commonly recognised as being even, long, or short.
Even odds
When something is just as likely to happen as not, it is given even odds. These are presented as 1/1 in fractional odds or 2.0 in decimal odds. In this instance, your winnings would be the same as your stake.
For example: In the case of 1/1 odds, you win £1 for every £1 you bet.
Therefore, if you bet £10 you'd win £10, and return £20 in total (your £10 stake plus your £10 winnings).
Long odds
If something is statistically less likely to happen, it is given long odds. This means you have the potential to win more than you would on even odds, but the risk of losing is higher.
For example: In the case of 10/1 long odds (or 11.0 in decimal form), you could win £10 for every £1 you bet, and therefore your winnings exceed your stake.
Decimal and fraction odds might seem confusing, especially if you're not familiar with online sports betting and all the betting terms and types. This handy guide is ideal for anyone new to betting, or if you're struggling to read the odds.
It contains a range of useful tips and tricks that will help you better understand just how betting odds work, so you can choose odds and place your bets with more confidence.
Here, we will highlight:
- The key points of betting odds and what you should look out for.
- How to read betting odds and make them work in your favour.
- Tips and tricks to help you understand betting odds more easily.
What are betting odds?
Betting odds are used to present the likelihood of an outcome, as well as help you understand how much you could win from a bet. They are often written out as a fraction (e.g. 2/1) or a decimal (e.g. 3.0).
Betting odds can be applied to anything that has a set outcome and is often seen in sport, football betting, entertainment, and politics. The odds measure the probability of a certain outcome, such as the result of a sports game or reality TV show, or whether a certain party gets the majority vote in an election.
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds are used to determine probability and calculate the winnings from a bet and are often seen in their decimal or fractional form. Odds are commonly recognised as being even, long, or short.
Even odds
When something is just as likely to happen as not, it is given even odds. These are presented as 1/1 in fractional odds or 2.0 in decimal odds. In this instance, your winnings would be the same as your stake.
For example: In the case of 1/1 odds, you win £1 for every £1 you bet.
Therefore, if you bet £10 you'd win £10, and return £20 in total (your £10 stake plus your £10 winnings).
Long odds
If something is statistically less likely to happen, it is given long odds. This means you have the potential to win more than you would on even odds, but the risk of losing is higher.
For example: In the case of 10/1 long odds (or 11.0 in decimal form), you could win £10 for every £1 you bet, and therefore your winnings exceed your stake.
A winning £10 bet at 10/1 odds would result in £100 winnings plus your £10 stake, therefore returning £110 in total.
Short odds
If something has a higher probability of happening, it is given short odds. While short odds are more likely to happen, the winnings will be smaller, and therefore you'll need to stake higher amounts for a bigger return.
For example: In the case of 1/10 short odds (1.10 in decimal form), you could win £1 for every £10 you bet.
Therefore, a winning £10 bet would result in £1 in winnings, amounting to a return of £11 (your £1 winnings plus your £10 stake).
How to read betting odds
Betting odds are most commonly presented as a fraction or a decimal in the UK. Moneyline odds, which are common in the US, are also becoming more popular.
Reading odds can be confusing if you're not familiar with what the different sets of numbers reflect. Here, we explain how to read decimal, fraction, and moneyline odds.
Understanding decimal odds
The simple rule of thumb with decimal betting odds is the bigger the number, the larger the return will be. For example, decimal odds of 3.75 will result in larger winnings than decimal odds of 1.75.
To work out your winnings from decimal odds, simply multiply the odds by your stake. The resulting number reflects both your winnings and your stake.
For example: If you bet £10 on odds of 3.75, you would return £37.50 – this means you'll have won £27.50 (£37.50 – your £10 stake).
Understanding fractional odds
Fractional odds are a more traditional way of displaying odds in the UK. Appearing in fraction form (e.g. 2/1), you must first work out your winnings and then add on your stake to determine your total return.
The best way to calculate your returns from fractional odds is to follow a formula:
((stake/second number) x first number) + stake = total returns
Plus And Minus In Betting Football
This might look complicated, but we promise it will make sense when you plug your numbers in.
For example: If you bet £10 on a 5/2 bet, your calculation would look like:
((£10/2) x 5) + £10) = £35
For longer odds with a larger return, look out for odds where the first half of the fraction is larger than the second half.
For example Odds of 5/1 will return greater winnings than odds of 1/5. If you were to stake £10 on odds of 5/1, then your return would be £60. However, if you were to stake £10 on odds of 1/5, your return would only be £12.
Understanding moneyline odds
Moneyline odds are often used in the US when betting on American sports, but they are becoming more common in Britain. They are presented as a plus (+) or minus (-) figure.
The moneyline shows you how much you have to bet to win £100.
For example: If you are presented with odds of +200, then your return (if you stake £100) will be £300 (your £200 winnings plus your £100 stake).
If you are presented odds of -200 (because this event is more likely) you will have to stake £200 to return £300 (your £200 stake plus £100 winnings).
To calculate the potential payout from a moneyline bet, simply follow this formula
stake x (odds/100) + stake = total returns
For example: If you are presented with odds of +200 and you bet £5, your formula would look like:
£5 x (200/100) + £5 = £15 total returns
Converting decimal odds to fractions
Converting decimal betting odds to fractions takes a bit of basic maths knowledge.
First, take your decimal odds and subtract 1 from the number.
For example: If you have decimal odds of 3.75, subtract 1 and you are left with 2.75. These are odds of 2.75/1.
Odds need to be made up of whole numbers, so we need to take 2.75 and turn it into a whole number. The easiest way in this instance is to multiply 2.75 by 100 and move the decimal along two places. This gives us 275/100.
From there, we can work our way to finding the smallest equivalent fraction.
In this case, we can divide our fraction by 25, leaving us with fractional odds of 11/4 – previously 3.75 when presented as a decimal.
Now that you understand betting odds and how they work, you can begin to use them to your advantage. Browse all the latest sports betting odds or sign up to Grosvenor Casinos today to get started.
How to calculate betting odds return
Using our bet calculator, you can now work out how much a potential bet could return.
The calculator gives you the option to select the bet type, the win odds, your stake, and whether the bet placed will be each way or not.
As well as finding out how much your bet will potentially return, the calculator also gives you the total profit.
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